Registration, turnout, the path to win, and every source — nothing taken on faith.
In regular elections this district runs about 10–12 points Democratic, and registration is only D+8.7. December’s 27-point special was a low-turnout outlier. The bloc that decides it: the 27,112 independents. Move the sliders — watch the share.
Roiban’s projected vote share, by persuasion assumptions.
Illustrative model. Electorate composition assumed ≈ registration composition (D 40.8% / R 31.8% / NPA 27.5%, major-party + NPA basis); a midterm GOP turnout edge makes these targets easier. Registration: FL Division of Elections book closing, Nov 10, 2025.
The 27-point loss in December’s special ran on about 15,000 ballots — a sliver of a real election. A November midterm brings 60,000–70,000 voters to the polls, a far broader and more winnable electorate.
FL Division of Elections / Ballotpedia official results. The 2022 midterm (~62,900 ballots) is the best analog for 2026.
More than one in four District 90 voters belong to no party — a bloc nearly as large as the entire Republican base. They’re not ideological; they’re cost-of-living voters. Win them on affordability and competence, and a D+8.7 seat flips. Ignore them, and nothing else matters. This campaign is built for them.
No-party-affiliation share of HD90 registration — FL Division of Elections book closing, Nov 10, 2025.
Florida’s premiums run far above the national norm. Move the sliders to see what closing part of that gap would put back in your budget.
Illustrative — not a promise of specific legislation or amounts.
A what-if calculator using your own inputs. Florida’s premiums average roughly 2–3× the U.S.; real relief depends on legislation that attacks the litigation costs behind them.
The average Palm Beach County home-insurance premium — the most expensive state in the country. Recent state reforms have started to bring rates down, but families here still pay far too much. The job isn’t done.
Florida’s ~79% share of national insurance lawsuits (against ~9% of claims) is the cost driver reform has to keep attacking.
It’s not about effort or good intentions. In a chamber the other party runs 85–33, the majority decides what even gets a hearing. That’s the machine — and it’s why representation in the majority matters.
Any of the 120 members can file. Long filed or co-sponsored three in 2026.
The majority decides what gets heard. All three of Long’s 2026 bills died here, with no hearing.
Bills the majority advances get debated and voted by the full House.
Passed by both chambers, signed by the Governor. Effective for Floridians.
The fix isn’t a louder minority voice — it’s a seat in the majority that controls Step 2. (FL House process; 2026 bill histories.)
This is a modest-dollar seat. We won’t out-raise an incumbent backed by national money — so we’ll out-work him, and stay accountable to the people who actually live here.
What Rep. Long’s campaign and his political committee have reported raising this cycle — backed by unions, trial lawyers, and the national party.
More than 90% of that money is already gone — much of it winning December’s special. There’s no big war chest in the bank; this race starts closer to even than the headline suggests.
Every dollar here will come from people who want a more affordable District 90 — reported in full, on time, no exceptions.
Long’s campaign account and his “Long Lasting Progress” committee, 2026 cycle: ~$86,000 raised / ~$79,000 spent. FL Division of Elections Campaign Finance Database, retrieved June 7, 2026; historical context via Follow the Money / Ballotpedia and Florida Politics (2025 special).
District 90 runs up the coast of central Palm Beach County. It’s diverse, it’s aging, and more than a quarter of us were born in another country — people who came here, like me, to build something.
U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 5-year, Florida State House District 90.
Because the data should be checkable, not taken on faith. The insurance figure is confirmed against the FL Office of Insurance Regulation.
| Registration D+8.7 (D 40,285 / R 31,365 / NPA 27,112; 102,903 total) | FL Division of Elections, book-closing report, State House District 90, Nov 10, 2025. source |
| Election margins (2020 D+19.2, 2022 D+9.8, 2024 D+12.2, 2025 special D+27.3) | Ballotpedia / FL Division of Elections official results. source |
| Long’s 2026 bills (HB 855 / HB 1377 / HB 451 — died in committee) | Florida Senate/House official bill histories, 2026 session. source |
| Delray Beach FY2025 rollback vote (no, 4–1) | The Coastal Star, Sept. 4, 2024. source |
| Demographics (pop 184,138; median income $76,862; home value $370,400) | U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 5-year, FL State House District 90. source |
| Home-insurance cost (Palm Beach County average $6,614; FL highest in U.S.) | FL Office of Insurance Regulation, Property Insurance Stability Report (Jan 1, 2025). Rates began easing in 2025–26 (~26,000 PBC homes avg −11.9%) — still the nation’s highest. |
| Incumbent 2026 finance (~$86k raised / ~$79k spent, campaign + committee) | FL Division of Elections Campaign Finance Database, 2026 cycle, retrieved June 7, 2026. source |
This is an engineer’s campaign, so the evidence is public by default. Every figure on this site is sourced in the Methods section, and we’ll publish a plain data appendix — registration, turnout, the path model — so anyone can check our math. Disagree with a number? Tell us, with a source, and we’ll fix it.