Registration, turnout, the path to win, and every source — nothing taken on faith.
In regular elections this district runs about 10–12 points Democratic, and registration is only D+8.0. December’s 27-point special was a low-turnout outlier. The bloc that decides it: the 26,601 independents. Move the sliders — watch the share.
Roiban’s projected vote share, by persuasion assumptions.
Illustrative model. Electorate composition assumed ≈ registration composition (D 40.7% / R 32.3% / NPA 27.0%, major-party + NPA basis); a midterm GOP turnout edge makes these targets easier. Registration: FL Division of Elections book closing, July 20, 2026.
The 27-point loss in December’s special ran on about 15,000 ballots — a sliver of a real election. A November midterm brings 60,000–70,000 voters to the polls, a far broader and more winnable electorate.
FL Division of Elections official results. The 2022 midterm (~62,900 ballots) is the best analog for 2026.
About one in four District 90 voters belongs to no party — a bloc nearly as large as the entire Republican base. They’re not ideological; they’re cost-of-living voters. Win them on affordability and competence, and a D+8.0 seat flips. Ignore them, and nothing else matters. This campaign is built for them.
No-party-affiliation share of HD90 registration — FL Division of Elections book closing, July 20, 2026.
Florida’s premiums run far above the national norm. Move the sliders to see what closing part of that gap would put back in your budget.
Illustrative — not a promise of specific legislation or amounts.
A what-if calculator using your own inputs. In Insurify’s 2026 national report, Florida is the most expensive state in the country for homeowners insurance; real relief depends on legislation that attacks the litigation costs behind them.
The average Palm Beach County home-insurance premium, July 2026 — down from $6,614 in Jan. 2025 and $6,412 in Jan. 2026. The state reforms are bringing rates down. Families here still pay far too much. The job isn’t done.
Florida’s share of U.S. homeowners-insurance lawsuits fell from 79% in 2020 (against 9% of claims) to 41% in 2025 (against 5% of claims, preliminary). That litigation gap is the cost driver reform has to keep attacking.
Amendment 3 (CS/HJR 1-F) would raise the homestead exemption from $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 — on the non-school part of your bill. Set your numbers and see the estimate.
Illustrative — homesteaded property, non-school taxes only; passes only with 60% voter approval.
Estimate = added exemption × your non-school millage. Millage varies by city — check your TRIM notice; 11.5 mills is a typical Palm Beach County non-school total. Assumes the current $50,000 homestead baseline; school taxes unchanged either way.
Up from $50,000 today — wiping out the non-school property-tax bill for most homesteaded Florida homes. People who were not Florida residents on December 31, 2026 get the larger exemption starting in their fifth year, and non-homestead property’s yearly assessment cap drops from 10% to 5%.
Constitutional amendments need 60% approval. I’m voting yes — and asking for a seat in the majority that writes the implementing law.
It’s not about effort or good intentions. In a chamber the other party ran 82–34 as of October 2026 (4 seats vacant), the majority decides what even gets a hearing. That’s the machine — and it’s why representation in the majority matters.
Any of the 120 members can file. Long was first-named sponsor on seven bills in 2026 and co-sponsor on eleven more.
The majority decides what gets heard. Six of his seven bills died here, never placed on a committee agenda.
Bills the majority advances get debated and voted by the full House.
Passed by both chambers, signed by the Governor. Effective for Floridians.
The fix isn’t a louder minority voice — it’s a seat in the majority that controls Step 2. (FL House process; 2026 bill histories.)
This is a modest-dollar seat. We won’t out-raise the incumbent — so we’ll out-work him, and stay accountable to the people who actually live here.
Reported raised through October 2, 2026, including a $7,936 transfer from his 2025 special-election account (FL Division of Elections, account 89640).
The political committee Rep. Long chairs has reported $92,100 raised and $82,045 spent since February 2025, most of the spending in the fall of 2025 (FL Division of Elections, account 89020). We update these figures as reports are filed.
Every dollar here comes from individuals or from me — reported to the Florida Division of Elections, account 91286, where anyone can read the filings.
Rob Long, 2026 General, account 89640: $64,699.93 raised / $46,352.49 spent through the Sept. 19–Oct. 2, 2026 report. Long Lasting Progress PC, account 89020 (Chairperson: Rob Long): $92,100.00 raised / $82,045.30 spent through the Sept. 26–Oct. 2, 2026 report. FL Division of Elections Campaign Finance Database, retrieved Oct. 9, 2026.
District 90 runs up the coast of central Palm Beach County. It’s diverse, it’s aging, and more than a quarter of us were born in another country — people who came here, like me, to build something.
U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 5-year, Florida State House District 90.
Because the data should be checkable, not taken on faith. The insurance figure is confirmed against the FL Office of Insurance Regulation.
| Registration D+8.0 (D 40,145 / R 31,852 / NPA 26,601 / minor 4,545; 103,143 active; 106 precincts) | FL Division of Elections, 2026 Primary book-closing report, Active Registered Voters by House District, July 20, 2026. The Oct. 5, 2026 general-election report replaces this when published. source |
| Election margins (2020 D+19.2, 2022 D+9.8, 2024 D+12.2, 2025 special D+27.3) | FL Division of Elections official results (2020 on pre-2022 district lines). source |
| Long’s 2026 bills as lead sponsor (7: CS/HB 851 passed, ch. 2026-109; HB 853 / 855 / 907 / 957 / 1193 / 1447 died in committee, no hearing) | Florida House sponsored-bills list; FL Senate/House official bill histories, 2026 session; Laws of Florida ch. 2026-109. source |
| Property-tax votes: CS/CS/HJR 203 (House 80–30, Feb. 19, 2026 — Long: No); CS/HJR 1-F (75–26 / 30–9, June 2, 2026) | Florida House roll call VoteId 24474 (HJR 203); 2026F special-session House/Senate roll calls (HJR 1-F). source |
| Demographics (pop 184,138; median income $76,862; home value $370,400) | U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2024 5-year, FL State House District 90. source; tables B01003, B01002, B05002, B19013, B25077, S1501, S1701, S0801, B21001 |
| Home-insurance cost (Palm Beach County average $6,323, July 2026; second-highest of Florida’s 67 counties) | FL Office of Insurance Regulation, Property Insurance Stability Report (July 1, 2026); earlier editions Jan. 2025 ($6,614) and Jan. 2026 ($6,412). Rates eased through 2025–26 (about 26,000 Palm Beach County Citizens policyholders, average −11.9% in 2026; Citizens Property Insurance, 2026 approved rate changes by county; Governor’s office, Jan. 12, 2026) — in Insurify’s 2026 national report, Florida is the most expensive state in the country for homeowners insurance. |
| Incumbent finance (campaign account 89640: $64,700 raised / $46,352 spent; Long Lasting Progress PC, account 89020: $92,100 raised / $82,045 spent; both through Oct. 2, 2026) | FL Division of Elections Campaign Finance Database, retrieved Oct. 9, 2026. account 89640 · account 89020 |
This is an engineer’s campaign, so the evidence is public by default. Every figure on this site is sourced in the Methods section, and we’ll publish a plain data appendix — registration, turnout, the path model — so anyone can check our math. Disagree with a number? Tell us, with a source, and we’ll fix it.